CONFLICT: GAZA, OCCUPATION POLICIES AND THE PROMISED LAND DOCTRINE IN THE LIGHT OF PROSPECT THEORY

Abstract

Abstract: The present study aims to examine three critical dimensions of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict—the cycle of violence in Gaza, occupation and settlement policies, and the doctrine of the Promised Land (Eretz Yisrael) — from a political psychology perspective. The methodology involves analyzing the decision-making processes on the Israeli side using the key concepts of Prospect Theory. The study’s primary findings indicate that Israeli policy decisions are profoundly shaped by cognitive biases, a claim substantiated by recent public opinion data. The analysis interprets key empirical findings—such as the hardening of opposition to a two-state solution, a persistent status quo bias, and significant public support for radical policies including the resettlement of Gaza—through the lens of Prospect Theory. The principle of "loss aversion" is particularly salient, engendering hypersensitivity to perceived security, territorial, and ideological losses, which fuels risk-seeking military operations in Gaza and intransigence regarding the occupied territories. These tendencies are reinforced when the de facto situation or ideological claims become the "reference point" and events are "framed" in terms of "security" or "religious right." In conclusion, it is emphasized that Prospect Theory offers a valuable analytical framework for understanding the intractable dynamics of the Israeli dimension of the conflict. A comprehensive understanding of these psychological mechanisms, and their manifestations in public opinion, is imperative for effective conflict analysis and the development of potential resolution strategies.

Keywords: Israeli-Palestinian Conflict, Political Psychology, Prospect Theory, Decision Making Processes, Loss Aversion, Framing